Using Phenomenological Research to Drive Dynamic Modeling

One of the most difficult aspects in mathematical modeling and simulation is developing data to drive models and learning. This is particularly difficult when the subject involves intangible variables and concepts such as stress and perceptions that are difficult to ascribe a quantitative value to. This paper provides a description of how qualitative data collected during in depth phenomenological interviews with subject matter experts can be used to drive models. It also provides a case study of insurgency warfare and coalition and Afghan National Government performance during the last ten years. The U.S. government has spent more than $300 billion on the war in Afghanistan. Despite the employment of these resources, the goal of creating stability in the country has not been achieved. Twenty U.S. Army officers with six or more months of experience in Afghanistan were selected by random choice from a specific group. The participants were then interviewed to determine the meaning of their experiences in fighting an insurgency. Data analysis included organizing responses by question to identify the frequency of trends, patterns, and themes; and development of textural and structural descriptions of resource allocation and stability within the context of this study. Data was then transformed to create look-up tables that can be used to model, calibrate, and ascribe quantitative values to various variables in a dynamic insurgency model. A proof of concept model was then created to demonstrate the potential utility and power behind a model that combines the qualities of quantitative mathematical science and qualitative research methodology. DOI: 10.4018/jats.2012040104 International Journal of Agent Technologies and Systems, 4(2), 60-77, April-June 2012 61 Copyright © 2012, IGI Global. Copying or distributing in print or electronic forms without written permission of IGI Global is prohibited. The primary application based focus for this research considered the observation that after more than ten years of fighting in Afghanistan, the overall stability in the country has not improved (Belasco, 2008; Jalali, 2009; Rashid, 2009; Warner, 2008). Indeed, there are many reports that indicate that not all resources contributed to sustaining the Afghan National Government and defeating the Taliban have not been used in an optimal manner (Dale, 2009; Rashid, 2009; Rubin, 2007). Jones (2009) demonstrated that there are two approaches to nation building, which he called top-down and bottom-up (p. 319). The top-down approach focuses on providing money, resources and assistance at the national level, and then using the host nation administration and organizations to distribute that assistance as needed throughout the country. The bottom up paradigm uses the opposite approach. This study uses qualitative techniques to assess the problem from a bottomup approach, and then uses systems modeling to examine the problem from a top-down approach. It also exhibits the utility of using bottom-up originated qualitative data collected using a phenomenological investigative approach to provide data that informs mathematical models.